PTS, a Brazilian market research firm, today published a detailed report on the pay-television industry in 2002 with revised projections for the next five years based on current macroeconomic trends.
PTS?s basic scenario projects 3.46 million subscribers at the end of 2003, with no growth in the previous 12 months. Growth will resume in 2004, with the subscriber base rising to 3.6m by the end of next year, 3.8m in 2005, 4.2m in 2006, and 4.6m in 2007.
The best-case scenario projects moderate growth this year, with some 3.53m subscribers by December 2003, similar to the 2000 level, followed by somewhat faster growth to 3.76m in 2004, 4.15m in 2005, 4.7m in 2006, and 5.5m in 2007.
The much-desired 6m milestone could be reached in 2008 under the best-case scenario, which assumes that the Brazilian economy will expand 3.5% per year on average in the five-year period.
The worst-case scenario sees the industry resuming growth only in 2006.
According to PTS, cable and MMDS networks expanded conspicuously in the latter part of 2002. The number of homes passed by these networks now totals 12.6m and cable networks add up to 63,000 kilometers.
PTS projects revenues of 3.5 billion Brazilian Reals in 2003, potentially rising to 3.8bn BRL in 2004. The exchange rate is currently stable in the range of 3.00 BRL per US Dollar.
Surveys by PTS show that interest in subscribing to pay television has declined over the years. In 2000, 45% of respondents who were not subscribers at the time of the survey said they were interested in signing up for the service. The proportion fell to 29% in 2001 and to only 15% in 2002, accompanied by corresponding growth in the proportion who didn?t know if they would subscribe at some future time.